Page 112 - Biomarkers for risk stratification and guidance in heart failure

Serial NT-proBNP measurements during and early after HF admission.
Table 4. Performance of Predictive Models for 1-Year Mortality and the Combined End Point of HF Readmission or Mortality
Model
Mortality
Clinical risk factors†
+ Inpatient change in NT-proBNP
+ Early outpatient change in NT-proBNP
+ NT-proBNP at 1 month follow-up
Clinical risk factorsy + inpatient change in NT- proBNP
+ Early outpatient change NT-proBNP + NT-proBNP at 1 month
Clinical risk factors‡ + early outpatient change in NT-proBNP
+ Inpatient change in NT-proBNP + NT-proBNP at 1 month
Clinical risk factors† + NT-proBNP at 1 month
+ Inpatient change in NT-proBNP + early outpatient change in NT-proBNP
HF-related readmission or mortality
Clinical risk factors†
+ Inpatient change in NT-proBNP
+ Early outpatient change in NT-proBNP
+ NT-proBNP at 1 month follow-up
Clinical risk factors† + inpatient change in NT- proBNP
+ Early outpatient change in NT-proBNP + NT- proBNP at 1 month
Clinical risk factors† + early outpatient change NT-proBNP
+ Inpatient change in NT-proBNP + NT-proBNP at 1 month
Clinical risk factors† + NT-proBNP at 1 month
+ Inpatient change in NT-proBNP + early outpatient change in NT-proBNP
χ2 Model
45.0 50.3$ 53.7II 57.0II 50.3
64.1#
53.7
64.1II
57.0 64.1§
60.7 72.2# 96.9# 83.4# 72.2
117.1#
96.9
117.1#
83.4 117.1#
c-Statistic: AUC (95% CI)
IDI Hos-Lem*
0.77 (0.71-0.84) .833
0.79 (0.72-0.85)
0.80 (0.74-0.86)‡
0.80 (0.74-0.87)‡
0.79 (0.72-0.85) .924
0.82 (0.77-0.88)§
0.80 (0.74-0.86) .472
0.82 (0.77-0.88)
0.82 (0.77-0.88)
0.80 (0.74-0.87) .806
0.76 (0.70-0.82)
0.78 (0.73-0.84)
0.82 (0.77-0.87)II
0.81 (0.76-0.86)$
0.78 (0.73-0.84) .475
0.85 (0.81-0.90)#
0.82 (0.77-0.87) .523
0.85 (0.81-0.90)II
0.85 (0.81-0.90)$
0.81 (0.76-0.86) .365
2%‡ .924 3%§ .472 4%# .806
5%# .461
4%II .461 2%‡ .461
.225 5 3%II .475
10%# .523 7%# .365
13%# .773
6%# .773 9%# .773
AUC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; IDI, integrated discrimination index, Hos-Lem, Hosmer-Lemeshow; other abbreviations as in Tables 1 and 3.
*For the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic, a P value close to 1 indicates excellent calibration.
†Reference model including previous episode of HF, ischemic etiology of HF, age, mean arterial pressure, and eGFR.
‡<0.1. §<0.05. II<0.01. #<0.001.
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