Page 58 - THE EVOLUTION OF EARLY ARTHRITIS AND CARDIOVASCULAR RISK Samina A. Turk

CHAPTER 3
Table 3. Clinical prediction models for development of rheumatoid arthritis
First author and year (ref)
van de Stadt 2013(47)
de Hair 2013(48)
Lahiri 2014(49)
Cohort; variables
Seropositive arthralgia patients
Prediction rule vari- ables: alcohol nonuse, family history, several symptoms, autoanti- body status
Seropositive arthralgia patients
Predictive variables: smoking, BMI
European Prospective Investigation of Cancer, UK
Prediction rule vari- ables: alcohol use, smoking, occupation, BMI, diabetes mellitus, parity
ACPA-positive arthralgia patients
Prediction rule vari- ables: several symp- toms, high-positive ACPA, positive ultra- sound power
Doppler signal
Numbers
Arthralgia: 374 (131 developed arthritis)
Arthralgia: 55 (15 developed arthritis)
Total par- ticipants: 25455 (184 de- veloped IP, 138 devel- oped RA)
Arthralgia: 100 (50 developed RA)
Results
Prediction rule:
AUC 0.82 (CI: 0.75-0.89) Intermediate vs low risk group: HR 4.52 (CI: 2.42-8.77)
High vs low risk group:
HR 14.86 (CI: 8.40-28)
Smoking (ever vs. never) and risk of RA: HR 9.6 (CI: 1.3-73)
Obesity (BMI ≥25 vs. <25) and risk of RA: HR 5.6 (CI: 1.3-25)
Pack-years smoking in men and risk of IP: HR 1.21 (CI: 1.08-1.37) Seropositive in men and risk of IP:
HR 1.24 (CI: 1.10-1.41)
Having DM (I or II) and risk of IP:
HR 2.54 (CI: 1.26-5.09)
Alcohol and risk of IP (per unit/day): HR 0.36 (CI: 0.15-0.89)
Overweight and risk of seronegative IP: HR 2.75 (CI: 1.39-5.46)
Parity ≥2 and risk of IP :
HR 2.81 (CI: 1.37-5.76)
Breastfeeding and risk of IP: HR 0.66 (CI: 0.46-0.94)
Power Doppler model:
Harrell’s C 0.67 (CI: 0.59-0.74) Progression to IA:
Low risk (0 points) 0% Moderate risk (1–2 points) 31% High risk (≥3 points) 62%
Rakieh 2014(50)
ACPA= anti-citrullinated protein antibody, AUC= area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, BMI= body mass index, CI= confidence interval, DM= diabetes mellitus, EIRA= Epidemiological Investigation of RA, HR= hazard ratio, IA= inflammatory arthritis, IP= inflammatory polyarthritis, NHS= Nurses’ Health Study, OR= odds ratio, RA=rheumatoid arthritis, VAS= visual analogue scale. Reproduced from Turk et al, 2014(6).
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