Page 33 - THE EVOLUTION OF EARLY ARTHRITIS AND CARDIOVASCULAR RISK Samina A. Turk

PREDICTION OF FUTURE RHEUMATOID ARTHRITIS
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First author (ref) and year
Cohort; Variables
Numbers
Results
de Hair et al,(121) 2013
Seropositive patients with arthralgia Predictive variables: smoking and BMI
Arthralgia: 55 (15 deve- loped arthri- tis)
Smoking (ever vs never) and risk ofRA: HR 9.6 (CI 1.3–73)
Obesity (BMI 25 vs <25) and risk of RA: HR 5.6 (CI 1.3–25)
Lahiri et al,(29) 2014
European Prospective Investigation of Cancer, Norfolk, United King- dom
40–79 y
Prediction rule vari- ables: alcohol consump- tion, smoking, occu- pation, BMI, diabetes mellitus, parity
Total par- ticipants: 25,455 (184 developed IP, 138 devel- oped RA)
Pack-years smoking in men and risk of IP: HR 1.21 (CI 1.08–1.37) Seropositive in men and risk of IP: HR 1.24 (CI 1.10–1.41)
Having DM (I or II) and risk of IP: HR 2.54 (CI 1.26–5.09)
Alcohol and risk of IP (per unit/d): HR 0.36 (CI 0.15–0.89)
Overweight vs normal-weight and risk of seronegative IP: HR 2.75 (CI 1.39–5.46)
Parity 2 vs no children and risk of IP: HR 2.81 (CI 1.37–5.76)
Breastfeeding for every 52 wk and risk of IP: HR 0.66 (CI 0.46–0.94)
Sparks et al, (172)
2014
NHS, United States, females 30-55 y
EIRA, Sweden, 18-70 y Prediction rule vari- ables: family history, alcohol consumption, smoking, BMI, parity, autoantibody status, genetic risk score
RA cases: 1625 Controls: 1381
NHS Seropositive RA (model family history, epidemiologic, genetic): AUC 0.74 (CI 0.70-0.78)
HS Seropositive RA and positive family history: AUC 0.82 (CI 0.74-0.90)
EIRA ACPA positive RA (model family history, epidemiologic, genetic): AUC 0.77 (CI 0.75-0.80)
EIRA ACPA positive RA and positive family history: AUC 0.83 (CI 0.76-0.91) EIRA ACPA positive RA and positive family history, high genetic suscepti- bility, smoking and increased BMI: OR 21.73 (CI 10-44)
Rakieh et al, (166)
2014
Yorkshire, United King- dom
ACPA-positive patients with arthralgia Prediction rule vari- ables: joint tenderness, morning stiffness ≥30 min, high-positive au- toantibodies, positive ultrasonographic power Doppler signal
Arthralgia: 100 (50 de- veloped RA)
Power Doppler model: Harrell’s C 0.67 (CI 0.59-0.74)
Progression to IA:
Low risk (0 points) 0%
Moderate risk (1–2 points) 31% High risk (≥3 points) 62%
Abbreviations: AUC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; BMI, body mass index; CI, confidence interval; DM, diabetes mellitus; EIRA, Epidemiological Investigation of RA; HR, hazard ratio; IA, inflammatory arthritis; IP, inflammatory polyarthritis; NHS, Nurses Health Study; OR, odds ratio; VAS, visual analogue scale
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