Page 130 - Risk quantification and modification in older patients with colorectal cancer

Chapter 6
Appendix C Comparison of three preoperative risk prediction models
Model Name
Year Population
Definition Severe Complications
No Predictors Preditors
Development AUC
External AUC
External calibration
GerCRC
2019
CRC surgery (Mean age 77)
Any complication leading to death, ICU admission > 2 days, reintervention, or an hospital stay > 14 days
8
Gender, COPD/Asthma/ Emphysema, Previous PE or DVT, Rectal Cancer, Mobility Aid, previous delirium, Need for ADL assistance, polypharmacy
0.69 (0.65#)
none none
ACS-NSQIP Universal Model
2013 19
CR surgery (Mean age 61)
Deep wound infection, wound disruption, CVA, MI, Cardic Arrest, PE, Ventilator Dependence, AKI, major bleeding, sepsis
15
Age, Tumour Stage, COPD,
Dyspnoea, BMI, Functional Dependency, Creatinine, albumin, PT time, sepsis, Operative Urgency, Disseminated Cancer, Indication for surgery, Surgical Extent, Wound class
0.72
none none
CR-BHOM
2011 48
CRC surgery (Mean age 74)
Anastomic leakage, abscess, bleeding or bowel obstruction (not including mortality)
5
Age, Urea, Sodium, Albumin, Operative Urgency
0.70 0.66* Poor-fit*
# Optimism corrected model
*observational study across 182 octogenarians with malignant-and non-malignant indications for Colorectal Surgery
Complications defined as Clavian-Dindo Classification Grade II or higher
PE. pulmonary embolism; DVT. Deep Venous Thrombosis; CVA. Cerebral Vascular Accident; BMI. Body Mass Index; PT. Prothrombin Time; AKI. Acute Kidney Injury; MI. Myocardial Infarction
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