Page 93 - A bird’s-eye view of recreation - Rogier Pouwels

Effectiveness of scientific tools in decision making processes
Jochem et al. (2008) emphasized the role of recreation tools in mutual learning, but did not consider their effectiveness for boundary management in conflict solving. Because the relationship between scientist, managers, and stakeholders in boundary management is fundamentally different from the relationship in mutual learning without conflicts, it is important to reconsider the design of tools from a perspective of effectiveness in solving problems that have a high degree of uncertainty.
5.4.1 Uncertainty
In assessing environmental conditions, different types of uncertainties have been distinguished (Brugnach et al. 2008, Opdam et al. 2009). Incomplete knowledge is
uncertainty due to lack of sufficient scientific proof, unpredictability is uncertainty
caused by the stochastic behavior of the system under observation, and ambiguity
is due to low uniformity in societal values and norms. The impacts of these sources
of uncertainty on conflict solving are largely unexplored. Incomplete knowledge
seems to be managed in adaptive management, whereas boundary management
specifically aims to manage ambiguity. During the PROGRESS project we encountered uncertainties regarding incomplete knowledge and ambiguity several times. Uncertainties related to unpredictability were less present. Although we didn't analyze
their impact on the common learning process at that time, we can reflect on the way we
dealt with uncertainty in the various steps of the process in retrospect. The three criteria
for effective transfer of scientific knowledge in participatory processes suggested by 5 Cash et al. (2003) serve as an appropriate reference.
Only qualitative indications were available concerning the cause of the conflict, the decline of birds due to an increase in recreation. This influenced a number of choices we made, and in retrospect these can be considered as part of a strategy to minimize the impact of uncertainty on the credibility of scientific information. When choosing indicator species for biodiversity, managers want to be sure pilot actions will result in increasing population numbers. From a political point of view Natura 2000 species would be good indicator species. However, Kingfisher (Alcedo atthis) and Honey- buzzard (Pernis apivorus) probably will not profit from pilot actions because there is little overlap between suitable habitat for the Kingfisher and the current path network, and the population of the Honey-buzzard is so small that effects cannot be detected. Effects of pilot actions on the populations of Dartford warbler (Sylvia undata) and Nightjar (Caprimulgus europaeus) will also be difficult to detect because these are already increasing, probably because of climate change. Also stakeholders might disapprove
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