Page 55 - A bird’s-eye view of recreation - Rogier Pouwels

Table 4. Results of the simulations for three scenarios.
no recreation
current situation 0.35
yes
14
33
1.14
zoning scenario 0.28
yes
44
82
1.1
Linking ecological and recreation models
% disturbed habitat
viable metapopulation population 4 (bp)
average total population (bp) standard error total population
0
yes
41
83 1.14
Note: Number of runs was 100. Population 4 corresponds with population 4 in Fig. 5a-5b. ‘bp’ is number of breeding pairs.
For the scenario without recreation, no recreation indicators can be determined by
MASOOR. Compared to the current situation, the number of visitor groups per path 3 length increased in the zoning scenario by almost 20 percent (Table 5). In comparison
with the current situation, the length of paths in the zoning scenario containing less
than 1 visitor per hour (i.e. tranquil paths) decreased by almost 40 percent.
Table 5. Recreation indicators derived from MASOOR for the three scenarios.
no recreation visitor groups / km - tranquil paths (km) -
3.6 Discussion
current situation 3.7
62.6
zoning scenario 4.4
38.4
The results show that the zoning scenario achieves almost maximum achievable nature values in the case study area. As a next step, a scenario with zoning in population 4 only might be considered. Within a metapopulation the largest population is very important for the persistence and occupation of all the subpopulations (Verboom et al. 2001, Opdam et al. 2003). At the same time, the effects of the zoning scenario seem to produce a noticeable decline in the quality of recreational experience as compared with the current situation.
Choosing between the current situation and the zoning scenario is a political choice. If specific objectives or thresholds for nature indicators and recreation indicators that are agreeable to concerned stakeholders, scenario results can be explicitly compared. The existence of agreed upon objectives and thresholds may help managers resolve what might otherwise be considered an intractable situation.
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