Page 100 - Timeliness of Infectious Disease Notification & Response Systems - Corien Swaan
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98 Chapter 4
upper outbreak control condition. Pertussis and shigellosis remain in the region of high PIR2 values, meaning that secondary cases may have already produced most infections at the moment that the index case is reported, thereby, limiting the effectiveness of outbreak control by means of contact tracing.
Hepatitis A
Hepatitis B
Measles
Mumps
Pertussis
Shigellosis
           20 15 10
5
             No outbreak control
         Outbreak control
        00 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 Prop. of infections by index case until reporting, PIR1
Figure 4. Timeliness of current reporting speed in the Netherlands, evaluated conside- ring interventions applied to reported index cases only. The outbreak control condition is R x PIR1<1. Diseases that lie in the outbreak control areas are those for which repor- ting speed is timely enough to allow outbreak control. PIR 1, expected proportion of cases caused by index case at notification; R, reproduction number.
Hepatitis A
Hepatitis B
Measles
Mumps
Pertussis
Shigellosis
           20 15 10
5
             No outbreak control
          Outbreak control
        00 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 Prop. of infections by secondary case until index reporting, PIR2
Figure 5. Timeliness of current reporting speed in the Netherlands, evaluated conside- ring interventions applied for reported index cases and their secondary cases. The lower
R*PIR1 < 1
R*PIR2 < 1
Reproduction number, R Reproduction number, R
R2*PIR2 < 1





































































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