Page 102 - Timeliness of Infectious Disease Notification & Response Systems - Corien Swaan

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Chapter 4
HepA HepB
Measles Mumps
Pertussis Shigellosis
1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2
00 10 20 30 40 50 Reporting delay median (days)
Figure 6. PIR 1, depending on reporting delay median for the indicated diseases and assuming standard deviation equal to median value. Thick lines show reporting delay medians for which there is no outbreak control. Thin dashed lines would show reporting delay medians that bring diseases within the outbreak condition (R x PIR1<1), but they are not present because even with extremely short delays it is not possible to fulfil the condition with the studied diseases (except shigellosis). Symbols indicate PIR1 evalua- ted with current reporting delay data. HepA, hepatitis A; hepB, hepatitis B; PIR 1, expec- ted proportion of cases caused by index case at notification; R, reproduction number.
HepA HepB
Measles Mumps
Pertussis Shigellosis
1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2
00 10 20 30 40 50 Reporting delay median (days)
Figure 7. Expected proportion of infections caused by secondary cases before reporting of their index case, depending on reporting delay median for the indicated diseases and assuming standard deviation equal to median value. Thick lines show reporting delay medians for which there is no outbreak control. Intermediate width dashed lines show reporting delay medians which bring diseases within the upper outbreak condition (R x
Prop. of infections by secondary case until index reporting, PIR2 Prop. of infections by index case until reporting, PIR1