Page 71 - A bird’s-eye view of recreation - Rogier Pouwels
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increase in the total population in breeding pairs for the scenario without recreation.
Relating local impacts to regional conservation targets
4.4.3 Impact of recreation on regional biodiversity targets
Although the overall relationship between recreational use and bird densities can be the same for some species, the exact local impact can differ between the species due to varying combinations of visitor numbers and the relevant habitat conditions of these species. The coefficients for the relationship between breeding bird numbers and visitor densities are similar for Stonechat and Woodlark (Appendix 7), but the regional impact for Woodlark is almost twice as high (Table 1). In a scenario without recreation the population size of Stonechat would expected to be 16% higher and the population of Woodlark 28% higher. For the Nightjar an increase of only 11% of the regional population is expected in the absence of recreation. Although population size of Nightjar and Stonechat are lower as a result of the impact of recreation, this impact does not push the population below the Natura 2000 conservation targets (Table 1). Only for Woodlark do the models show that the population size falls below the conservation targets.
Table 1. Current population estimates in breeding pairs (bp) based on the best model with recreation (‘Expldev: 4 percentage explained deviance; ‘Signific.’: significance of recreation variables from Appendix 5; ‘Variables’:
recreation variables in the best model). Pressure1 represents the kernel option and is shown on the left in Appendix
6. Pressure2p represents the trail option with crossings of dirt roads. The regional impact is described as the
   Species
Woodlark Stonechat Nightjar
Population Expldev Signific. Current (bp)
2097 85.5 *** 1120 70.6 ** 892 64.2 **
Variables
Pressure1
Pressure1 Pressure2p
Regional impact (bp)
28% 16% 11%
Natura 2000 targets (bp)
2400 1000 610
      4.5 Discussion
We present an assessment procedure based on long-term bird monitoring data and recreational models that provides information to local managers and other key actors that can support management decisions in relation to the interaction between outdoor recreation and bird conservation targets. With this information local decisions about management can be linked to regional biodiversity conservation targets. We tailored our approach around data that were available; no new monitoring programs had to be implemented. We suggest that the assessment procedure can be used in protected areas that have recreational pressure and surveys and/or monitoring programs for birds. In addition to data about the distribution of the birds, maps are needed that
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