Page 34 - A bird’s-eye view of recreation - Rogier Pouwels

A bird's-eye view of recreation
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New Forest National Park
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visitors (x 1000 per year per ha)
without recreation (predicted)
current (actual in 2004)
intervention 1: close small car parks (predicted)
intervention 2: close 3 car parks (predicted)
intervention 3: close all but 20 car parks (predicted)
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Figure 6. Visitor density map on the New Forest based on the random forest model and the current location of car © OpenStreetMap (and) contributors, CC-BY-SA
parks and Nightjar territories. The area containing the highest visitor densities is located at Wilverley in the south.
Table 2. Predicted impact of potential interventions to amend the spatial variation of visitor densities on Nightjar breeding pairs in the New Forest, UK. The figures represent the current and predicted number of Nightjar breeding pairs over four visitor density zones (column 1) for four situations: the current distribution of car parks (column 3) and three interventions (columns 4–6). Column 2 shows the predicted number of breeding pairs for a situation without recreation.
0–10 805 157 177 199 578 10–25 156 141 144 64 25–50 95 90 88 35
>50 90 92 85 28 total 805 498 500 515 705
2.4.4 Rules of thumb
To estimate the impact of management interventions on visitor densities we derived two rules of thumb and one simple algorithm for managers. The first rule of thumb concerns the impact of tarmac roads on visitor densities: visitor densities are up to five
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